Jose Abreu: Old and Busted, or a Smashing Buy-Low?
As the slugger struggles, managers are left wondering which way to jump.
Jose Abreu is a monster of a man. And I mean that in the best possible way.
Standing at 6’ 3” and weighing in at 235 pounds.
With 30+ HR power his whole career.
Until last season, when he hit 15, and this season where he has – wait for it – Zero. Zero home runs.
So what gives?
Is Jose Abreu broken in his age 36 season? Or is there reason to believe in a bounce back?
This question is of particular interest to Fantasy Baseballers and Sorare Managers eying perhaps the buy-lowiest buy-low in the league and wondering whether to make the leap.
Let’s dig in and cover the bad and the good, so you can hit the market and make the best possible decision.
The Bad
Is it unfair to say everything has been bad?
I’m joking, but seriously, things have been bad to kick off the 2023 season.
Abreu is chasing pitches out of the zone more, walking less, and hitting for next to no power.
All while barely hitting in general.
His wRC+, one of the best ways to compare player performance, currently sits at 47. Meaning he is performing at less than half of league average. His worst season prior to this came in at 114. At his very worst up to this point, he was still 14% better than league average.
So yea, things are bad. Just look at this heat map of his power.
The advanced metrics don’t paint a prettier picture either.
4.1% barrel rate – lowest of his career.
35.2% hard-hit rate – lowest of his career.
40.6% swing percentage outside the zone – tied with his rookie season for the highest of his career.
To quote a recent piece from Eno Sarris from the Athletic:
“He isn’t hitting the ball as hard as he used to, and he’s been struggling against fastballs for a while now. I’m not sure he’s a great buy low.”
If you stop looking into Abreu right now and moved on with your life, I certainly wouldn’t blame you.
Players age, and Father Time comes for us all eventually. That reality is made even more stark in baseball where the difference between being great and being awful is measured in milliseconds.
But baseball is a game of adjustments.
What if Abreu is just a couple of tweaks away from returning serious value once more?
The Good
Ah, good. You’re still here.
Then you, like me, have an eye for value – wherever it may hide.
There are reasons for optimism here.
First, the projections have not abandoned Jose. At least not yet.
It doesn’t matter which model you subscribe to – ZiPS, Steamer, THE BAT, whatever, they all are calling for increases across the board.
The numbers gigabrains find it hard to believe Abreu doesn’t return to some semblance of his old ways, even if it is a slightly diminished version. To cite wRC+ again, most projection models put him back in the 110+ range, meaning back to above league average by a good 10%+.
The difference between here and there is vast, and buying in at the bottom and riding the return to form would certainly be a fun ride.
But how could that even happen?
What about that chase rate?
And the power?
A lot of this is at least partially explainable by the never-ending series of adjustments that makes up the game of baseball. The struggling power, rising chase rate, and general lack of any sort of hitting value all point to something being wrong mechanically.
In fact, based on a recent article from Rotographs by Jeff Zimmerman, I am inclined to believe that not only is there something mechanically wrong, but the Astros are hard at work on fixing it.
To quote Zimmerman quoting Alex Cintron (the hitting coach for the Astros):
“He’s chasing pitches because his body turns and head turns. He’s not recognizing pitches. But it’s about mechanics. It’s nothing about him. When that fixes and that clicks, it’s game over.”
Now there is the optimism we have been looking for.
And, as much as it pains me to say it, if there is an organization that can diagnose and improve a mechanics issue like this it is probably the Astros.
A recent piece from the MLB network effectively broke down the swing changes we are seeing this year.
Abreu isn’t recognizing pitches or hitting them with power like he used to because his body placement mid-swing is out of whack. The video, starting at the 4:52 marker does a good job of showing you what I mean.
I’m no tape junkie, but it looks to me like his mechanics changed, and that his coach was right. Abreu’s hips are opening sooner than before. This sort of timing matters a lot because a significant portion of a batter’s power comes from the core rotation.
Not to throw silver bullets at you, but this one piece of news (and the video to back it up) not only confirms there is a problem and that a solution is being worked on, but it also explains the power, contact, and pitch-chasing problems in one fell swoop.
These issues aren’t fixed yet, but if they were we wouldn’t be talking about a buy-low opportunity, would we?
What to do?
Things are murky enough that this is not a clear-cut answer.
In fact, it likely depends on your risk tolerance as a manager.
Let’s imagine a couple of examples:
Example 1: Astros Stack
You are an Astros fan, or at least enjoy the impact they can make at the plate.
You perhaps own a couple of their bats, maybe Tucker, Alvarez, Altuve, or Bregman and are looking for one more to round out a nice stack.
You also recognize that the offense has been struggling, so this might be a good time to pounce on some bargains.
If this sounds like you, Abreu could be highly appealing. His price is down, and you are already interested in owning pieces of that offense. You’ve already acquired pieces of the core, and rounding things out with a guy who almost assuredly can’t continue to be this bad could make a lot of sense.
As I said above, he might just be a tweak away.
Example 2: Value Seeker
You may not care much about stacking, but boy do you like value.
Abreu fits much of this mold since any return to form would also precipitate a value increase from a cost-per-point perspective.
There is a clear path to production in the short term and you can worry about things like age later after he gets back to good.
The downside here is that he doesn’t figure things out, but there has never been a less risky time to find out.
Example 3: Dynasty All The Way
You are building not just for this year, but the next 3.
Rookies are your jam, and long-term holding is the name of the game.
If this sounds like you, then there is little reason to dive into Abreu now. We are seeing enough signs of decline that his 3-year time horizon is murky, even if his current year has nowhere to go but up.
Example 4: You’ve Already Got Him
Somewhat self-explanatory, but many managers already bought in and are wondering if this is the bottom, or if things can still get worse.
Things can always get worse, that is just Murphey’s Law – but they can also get better.
With Abreu, there is far more room for improvement, so parting ways with him now feels in many ways like selling the absolute bottom.
I can sympathize, I’m in this situation and am planning on holding his card for what I hope to be better times, and more playability, ahead.
Whatever you decide, just know you have options.
It has been a bad start to the season for Jose Abreu – no ifs, ands, or buts about it - But I am left with optimism that he is simply a mechanical change away from getting back to the player we expected coming into the year.
A player that could still hit 20 homers and keep a .260 average on the season.
I find myself preaching patience once more.
Patience that a once-great slugger can make the adjustment and start smacking the cover off the ball again.
Patience to find that this isn’t the sunset of an epic career, but instead just a bump in the road.