Sorare MLB Market Watch – 12.21.22
Last week saw the launch of Private Leagues in the NBA product, which bears watching for the MLB. Plus - players are on the move!
This Week’s News & Notes
Last week saw the launch of Private Leagues in the NBA product, this week saw the launch of Private leagues on the Football side. This development doesn’t promise we will see this feature when the MLB season rolls around, but short of the feature flopping completely, I think we will see it.
This is a great development, making participation stickier, as I pointed out last week.
Expanding on this, I think that some of the best moments in fantasy sports come from competing and bonding with friends – and being able to compete directly with friends using your NFTs simply multiplies the fun.
Winning rewards is excellent, but beating your friends is an amazing bonus and/or consolation prize.
Next step, chat feature within these private friend groups. I’m looking at you, Sleeper.
Next up, I wanted to showcase a great source of info from one of the best in the business. Scott White and the rest of the CBS team keep this doc up to date with offseason moves and their fantasy implications. Keeping tabs on this can help you track the off-season shuffle without needing to stay glued to Twitter all day. You can thank me later.
To make things even easier on you, I’ve read through everything that has happened thus far and listed out my 5 key takeaways here:
Carlos Rodon to the Yankees – ballpark changes might mean a slight rise in his ERA, but not as much as you might think.
Carlos Correa to the Giants… then the Mets – While regular fantasy baseball might put Correa behind Bogaerts in terms of value, the gap might not be super wide. Plus, Correa will likely now be playing 3B, so we could see a good range of positional eligibility for him in ’23.
Xander Bogaerts to the Padres – Park factors could mean a dip in power here. While he remains a top SS, his HR potential might take a bit of a dip.
Kenley Jansen to the Red Sox – New closer for BOS, and he might come at a nice discount in terms of card prices. Gotta like cheap saves.
Trea Turner to the Phillies – He left one of the best offenses in baseball to join one of the best offenses in baseball. Hard to have him anywhere but in your top handful of players overall.
And so, so many more…
Short-Term Flip & Long-Term Buy
For this week, I thought it would be fun to bring us full circle. To do that, I have selected two players from the transactions article above, and they constitute my buys and sells for the week.
Short-Term Flip
Carlos Rodon
Ltd 3-day average: .02 | Rare 1-week average .15
Rodon was fantastic in ’22. No doubt about it. On that basis alone I would at least be willing to shop him in the interest of selling high. Beyond that, he is moving from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park, so there is reason to expect a minor downgrade in terms of counting stats. Plus he is moving to the largest of large markets, so by sheer nature of more fans’ eyes looking at his card, there might just be more buyers.
Before anyone starts throwing things, Rodon is fringe top 50 in my ranks still, so don’t go flipping just to flip. But a sell-high opportunity paired with the notoriety that comes with joining the pinstripes? I might just take that once the season rolls around and he has a couple great starts.
Long-Term Buy
Trea Turner
Ltd Floor Price: .0720 | Rare Last Public Sale: .2
Turner was already an epic cornerstone of your roster. Hands down, no questions asked. So why am I proposing to consider buying now? A few reasons.
First, with the team change, he is going to experience the opposite of Rodon in terms of notoriety. Will it matter for card prices? Maybe not, but simply by nature of the fanbase, there is more attention on the dodgers than the Phillies year in, and year out. Less attention could mean a price dip.
Compounding with this, he should see very little drop-off in terms of the roster strength around him.
And the third piece of the pie, his steals were down this last year, and he was still a stud. With new rules going in place for ’23 that make stealing ever so slightly easier, (bigger bases = shorter distance between) he could actually see a slight boost in his point total.
All this pairs with the fact that he is valued outside the top 10 by price but currently ranks out as my 3rd overall player for ’23 and beyond in terms of long-term value.