Sorare MLB Market Watch – 2.01.23
We are one month closer to the World Baseball Classic, spring training, and the regular season!
5 Quick Hits
Baseball stats and projections are starting to heat up, and Sorare continues to make news in the Sports world.
Plus, this week’s five quick hits include a bonus 6th hit, since y’all deserve it!
1. Feel Good Story of the Week
You want a look at a wild ride of a year, coupled with all the amazing experiences the community of Sorare has to offer?
Look no further, this thread is for you.
2. Who wants some stats?
Yo-No-Say-Soccer consistently churns out some of the most in-depth spreadsheets I have seen in the space. The tweet here is just one of the recent examples that I wanted to highlight.
If you are the type of person who wants to see all the stats, metrics, and matchups before you set your lineups each week - be sure to give the guy a follow.
3. Could I interest you in More Stats?
Speaking of people you might want to follow, Eno Sarris has been one of my favorite fantasy baseball analysts for years.
Quick things like this are part of why.
We get lost in the stats a lot, and we get lost in median projections even more.
High/Low analysis like this is often more useful though - what are the floor and ceiling expectations of what a player might do, and how likely do I think he is to hit one or the other?
Taking the stats above, sure there is a world where Blake Snell outperforms Corbin Burnes this next year - but it would take Burns performing near his floor, and Snell performing near his ceiling.
Stats like this acknowledge that there is a chance there. That no certainties exist in this game. And that crazy things happen every season.
4. The Power of the People?
Alright - queue the laugh track.
You done?
These fan lists from MLB have been wonderful to see released over the last few weeks.
Many are quick to point out that the ranks don’t line up with what we as fantasy nerds have in our head, and those people are right to point that out. What this screams to me is opportunity.
If enough of the population believes that Jeremy Pena is truly better than the likes of Bichette, Seager, and Witt, such that we see an ounce of this in the Sorare market, it would represent an immense buying opportunity.
Things like this affirm my belief that the market is far from efficient since it is driven by belief and emotion.
5. Wen Prem? Now Prem.
The longtime meme became reality this last week, leaving many a tweetooor to wonder what can be focused on next.
Jokes aside, this is huge for the credibility and longevity of the company and bodes well for continued mainstream adoption.
Watch out ESPN fantasy, these new kids are making some noise!
6. Bonus Round
Lastly, shameless plug - I put some thought into developing my #Sorare Thesis.
The guiding principles of how I buy, sell, and play the game of Sorare.
Everyone is different, so every thesis should be unique as well.
Never a better time than pre-season to work on yours.
If you want help developing your own, reach out!
Buyin’ & Sellin’
This week is going to be a little weird. I can’t narrow my ‘buy’ list down enough to pick just one, so we are going to talk a little theory… you will see why.
Sellin’
Bryce Harper
Ltd average: .044 | Rare average: .179
Bryce Harper is a stud when he is on the field. But injuries have plagued him in recent years, with Tommy John surgery being just the most recent.
The man plays with a certain zeal for the game that seems to be both his superpower and his curse.
He is only a sell here because everyone and their mothers expects him back in May, producing at the superstar caliber that we are all used to.
They expect it so strongly that his floor price hovers around .35 ETH.
I would simply like to place my bets elsewhere. The opportunity cost of holding Harper during that time means I can’t spend that same ETH and acquire players like Jose Ramirez, Kyle Tucker, or Rafael Devers, who I like as much or more.
Buyin’
Unloved Rookies
Baseball loves a good prospect. It is a tale as old as time.
Sorare Baseball is no different, with stud rookies like Gunnar Henderson already auctioning for ludicrous rates.
But not all rookies get such a spotlight. As the season approaches and we start to see more and more prospects hit the market, my advice is to watch the ‘second-tier.’ The non-household names.
It is here where the acquisition cost should remain low, while the upside should remain high.
Even better, find the ones that already served a little time last year and didn’t immediately ball out. Fantasy players are quick to dismiss a poor debut, but oftentimes there is an adjustment that needs to happen at the big league level.
Of course, not all of these will pan out, but by focusing on those high-pedigree players not already earning the spotlight, you should see more room for your buys to hit big.