Sorare Ranks Update #9 - May 25th, 2023
The values and overvalues never stop.
It’s weird.
Sitting here at the intersection of Fantasy Baseball and Sorare MLB, there is some amount of mismatch between the two that is natural.
The two games are different after all. My thinking the entire time, and thus the edge I hope to provide comes from the realization that the two are not that different.
Players score points for their onfield actions, and those points (while slightly boosted) basically mimic points scoring in Fantasy Baseball.
And Fantasy Baseball has a long track record of analysts looking forward to rank players based on what they can provide to your team in the future.
Yet, when I go through my process each week…
BANG
Out jump what can only be explained as majestic under and over-reactions.
Sometimes what pops out of the spreadsheet doesn’t even feel good. In fact, sometimes it feels icky. Like saying Christopher Morel is overvalued, or that Jose Abreu is undervalued.
And yet, the market is going to do what it is going to do and rarely is that action a rational one. So my ranks become sort of a reality check, or the fun police, depending on your perspective.
Every player won’t be correctly valued, that is impossible, but based on the best the Fantasy and Sorare markets have to offer, playing using multi-year valuation windows (read: Dynasty) rather than what has happened the last week continues to provide a wealth of options for managers.
Let’s dive in!
Rankings
Hop into spreadsheet land for the full top 300 using the button below.
As always, players with negative slot differentials are considered “Values”, while players with positive slot differentials are considered “Overvalues.” ↓
If you just want my favorites for the week, then keep on reading!
10 Value Candidates
Bargain bin beasts, right here:
Teoscar Hernandez - SEA - OF
SoRank: 47 | Implied Rank: 147 | -100 slot differential
He’s still chasing pitches. A lot. And heck, maybe he isn’t quite the hitter he once was, but he also isn’t this bad and is in no way deserving of a barely top 200 valuation.
Tyler O’Neill - STL - OF
SoRank: 94 | Implied Rank: 233 | -139 slot differential
Almost healthy, and hopefully slotting right back into an everyday role in the short term. He’s a popular trade candidate too, so the possibility exists for an everyday role with a new team as soon as this year.
Seiya Suzuki - CHC - OF
SoRank: 98 | Implied Rank: 194 | -96 slot differential
Still love this guy.
Jose Abreu - HOU - 1B
SoRank: 102 | Implied Rank: 256 | -154 slot differential
I wrote about Abreu’s mechanical struggles here, and while it is possible we are seeing his skills decline with age, the market is acting as if it is a certainty. There is upside in being contrarian here.
Josh Bell - CLE - 1B/DH
SoRank: 149 | Implied Rank: 256 | -107 slot differential
Josh Bell, back again. Priced roughly on par with Abreu, Bell makes for another contrarian play that is also a few years younger.
Andres Munoz - SEA- RP
SoRank: 162 | Implied Rank: 349 | -187 slot differential
The buy-low window on a highly talented reliever is closing, with very few cards out there on the market.
Ramon Laureano - OAK - OF
SoRank: 203 | Implied Rank: 341 | -138 slot differential
Another potential trade deadline candidate, Laureano brings a well-rounded bat and some steals potential. He’s just been cold (and hurt) to begin the season.
Michael Kopech - CWS - SP
SoRank: 218 | Implied Rank: 464 | -246 slot differential
He continues to be a screaming value, even as he’s made some delivery adjustments and lowered his arm slot to be more deceptive.
Jesse Winker - MIL - OF/DH
SoRank: 222 | Implied Rank: 416 | -194 slot differential
Oh boy, here
Roansy Contreras - PIT - SP
SoRank: 262 | Implied Rank: 435 | -173 slot differential
Youth, stuff, and velocity all in one post-hype sleeper package. Just don’t expect immediate impact, he looks like he’s still figuring some things out.
10 Overvalued Candidates
Ooh look, shiny!
Josh Jung - TEX - 3B
SoRank: 117 | Implied Rank: 47 | 70 slot differential
“I’ve got a fever, and the only prescription is more rookies”
-The Market, every daySeriously though, this is a very talented young player being valued at or near the top of his range of outcomes for the season. Again.
Joe Ryan - MIN - SP
SoRank: 160 | Implied Rank: 46 | 114 slot differential
I love Joe Ryan, and believe he is one of the best young breakout pitchers. His value tells me everyone else believes this too. Sell high at your own peril, but his cards have reached overvalue status.
Hunter Brown - HOU - SP
SoRank: 210 | Implied Rank: 79 | 131 slot differential
Another young and talented pitcher, but there are other pitchers with similar peripherals out there for far, far less.
Brett Baty - NYM - 3B
SoRank: 231 | Implied Rank: 114 | 117 slot differential
Rookie Fever + NY Tax = Brett Baty in the overvalues
He’s still a great long-term prospect, just be careful about finding your entry point.
Harrison Bader - NYY - OF
SoRank: 244 | Implied Rank: 159 | 85 slot differential
Darth Bader is awesome, but expecting this level of production (based on the price) feels unsustainable.
Christopher Morel - CHC - 2B/3B/SS/OF
SoRank: 254 | Implied Rank: 41 | 213 slot differential
Boy has he looked good. This is the most painful overvalue call of all, but he is being valued as a top 40 kind of player, which seems at or above his range of expected outcomes.
Sonny Gray - MIN - SP
SoRank: 252 | Implied Rank: 108 | 144 slot differential
Still overvalued
Jared Walsh - LAA- 1B
SoRank: 279 | Implied Rank: 117 | 162 slot differential
I’m very excited he is back on the field, and that cards are now hitting the market. This overvalued call is more a factor of limited supply than anything else.
Nolan Gorman - STL - 2B/DH
SoRank: 290 | Implied Rank: 27 | 263 slot differential
He’s been hot. Really hot. But wowza.
Justin Turner - BOS - 3B/DH
SoRank: 300 | Implied Rank: 210 | 90 slot differential
Turner is back on the list again, I will continue stacking Red Sox elsewhere, mostly using Devers, Verdugo, and Casas.
That’s a wrap on the rankings, 10 Values, and 10 Overvalues for the week!
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Good luck out there this game-week managers!