SorareMLB Pre-Launch Prep: Dynasty Value Plays
Part I: Fantasy Sports are built on buys and sells. Soon the terms will actually be true.
Part I: Fantasy Sports are built on buys and sells. Soon the terms will actually be true.
Disclaimer: right off the bat I want to point out that my observations are based on statistical data and are not intended as financial advice, but rather fantasy baseball advice for the game of SorareMLB. As with anything that involves real money, please be sure to do your own research before playing.
If and when you do start your Sorare adventure, feel free to use my referral link here.
Before we get into it, this series of articles will be divided up based on two different types of Sorare players in mind. From here on out, I’ll call these people “managers” to better differentiate them from the baseball players we will be looking at. I will be releasing articles geared toward both manager styles in the coming weeks, with a third, bonus-article containing players that will appeal to both management styles after the Sorare MLB launch.
The first type of manager wants results now. This is a redraft-style manager who wants to maximize performance in tournaments from day one, and therefore maximize the chances of winning cards right off the bat. These folks are the short-term speculators of the fantasy sports world and will be the primary movers of the value needle by buying and selling who is hot right now based on recent performances.
Then there is the long-term manager. This person, while interested in the current season’s performance, is more focused on seasons in the future. This is a dynasty-style player who focuses more on macro trends and spotting youth, value, and opportunity over time.
Both have their merits, and both can be successful strategies in any fantasy game. The rankings and advice I will provide will focus on the unique market that Sorare is building since it doesn’t differentiate between the two roster management styles as most other league formats would. This presents an opportunity. What type of opportunity, and who should be at the top of your list should align with the type of player you plan to be.
Let’s lead off with the Dynasty side, since it is far less impacted by the day-to-day player performances. As such, what I write now will still hold value whenever Sorare MLB launches. The same would not be true if we reversed the order.
Dynasty Values
Based on my research model, these players show significant value discrepancies between their current and future year expectations on FantasyPros.
This analysis can be created and analyzed from the comfort of your own home by comparing the players’ dynasty rank to their Redraft (rest-of-season) rank. I’m using the rest-of-season rank to hopefully come the closest to gauging relative values for players between right now and the end of the MLB regular season. If we were at the beginning of the season, I would just be using the redraft rankings.
With this key difference in mind, if you are searching for long-term buy-low candidates, then you’ve come to the right place.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
The “low-hanging fruit” of the bunch, when Tatis is healthy he is one of the best players in the league. While he sits on the 60-Day IL with a wrist injury, savvy players will scoop up this injury discount and profit later.
Note: the discount may not be be as large as some, since Tatis is a young superstar with a huge name, but you may not get a better buying window from a value perspective. Heck, judging from this tweet, public consensus has barely moved on Tatis at all.
We will have to remain patient and see how card pricing shakes out at launch to spot whether there will be an opportunity window with Tatis.
Redraft Rest-of-Season Rank: 96
Dynasty Rank: 3
Value Delta (the difference between ROS and Dynasty rank): 93
Let’s dig a little deeper with the next two players.
Jared Kelenic
Ok, this might be a bit of an overcorrection since the Mariners currently have Kelenic demoted to AAA in Tacoma. However, he’s been consistently ranked as a top prospect, he just hasn’t figured out big-league pitching yet. However, his next chance could be coming sooner rather than later, with the all-star break looming and the Mariners dealing with some suspensions after their brawl with the Angels.
Assuming he figures things out at some point, finding a way to stash some shares upon launch could be an excellent long-term play. To me, Kelenic is officially entering post-hype-sleeper status.
If he doesn’t receive a call-up, we don’t know the specifics of how the Minor Leagues will work on Sorare. Think of him as a strong stash, or U23 prospect that could be on the brink of legit big-league action.
Redraft Rest-of-Season Rank: 302
Dynasty Rank: 70
Value Delta: 232
Lance McCullers Jr.
A guy I, admittedly, can’t quit. He’s got such amazing stuff when he is healthy. For those in the back, I repeat, when he is healthy.
Out with a flexor tendon strain right now, it is possible we don’t see McCullers back before the end of the season. Of course, this presents a lovely injury buy-low if you are playing more for next year than this one.
Redraft Rest-of-Season Rank: 340
Dynasty Rank: 137
Value Delta: 203
Honorable Mentions
The guys that just missed the list this time were Ozzie Albies (Value Delta: 141), Walker Buehler (Value Delta: 142), and George Kirby (Value Delta: 144). Perhaps we will see them in future iterations of this article.
Final Disclaimer: The ranks I used were from FantasyPros, and are publicly available to view for yourself as the season continues. I performed the statistical modeling over the top of existing ranks to spot value gaps. Here is the link to the Dynasty ranks, and the other link to the Redraft Rest of Season Ranks.