The Curious Case of Shohei Ohtani: A Sorare Story
He's a superhero for real-life baseball, but is he as super for your Sorare squad?
Shohei Ohtani is awesome at baseball. So awesome that he is not only a top batter in the game today but a top pitcher as well. This particular talent combination is not something we have seen in the sport in a long, long time. Like since Babe Ruth. So obviously, prospective Sorare managers are excited to score some Ohtani cards and get him into early lineups.
But I asked myself this question, is Ohtani as good for Sorare tournament entries as he appears to be at face value?
*A quick aside - because he is so awesome for the sport in general, the collectability of Ohtani’s cards is likely to be high no matter what. I will only be digging into his utility for tournaments within the Sorare product.
The Set Up
Sorare MLB launches their baseball card marketplace on July 19th, 2022, with competitions set to begin shortly after, on July 22nd, 2022.
Ohtani is a unicorn (read: exceedingly rare and talented player) who can be played as a Corner Infielder, as a hitter Flex, or as a Starting Pitcher within Sorare MLB. However, he cannot be played at Superflex to accrue both hitter and pitcher points. Managers must pick one option for how to play him each game week.
This matters because this ruling makes Ohtani’s counting stats a bit more difficult to calculate. If you, like me, have dropped year-to-date statistics from baseball reference into your favorite spreadsheet app, simply calculating a total is not enough. There is no way for Ohtani to accrue all the points from his counting stats based on the rules given.
If you could, he would be far and away the best player in the Sorare MLB game, and would effectively break the scoring matrix.
This begs the question, where does he fit in the list of top players?
The Pitch
I pulled the game-by-game scoring from Baseball Reference for Ohtani and calculated his Hitting and Pitching scores separately.
I then took a look at what would have been his year-to-date score if you only used him as a hitter. I used this as the baseline for his score.
My assumption here was that he would be a hitter in your lineup more often than he would be a pitcher since hitters tend to accrue more overall points through the Sorare scoring matrix.
I found that from the start of the season to the all-star break, Shohei Ohtani would have accrued 808 points for just hitting, and 401.8 points for just pitching, with the “optimal” score being a fusion of these two.
Week to Week
The first thing I noticed was that of the 30 hypothetical game weeks that could have taken place in the season thus far, 21 of the game weeks scored more points using Ohtani as a hitter. Only 9 game weeks would have profited by using him as a pitcher. Of these 9, there was a 1-game week at the beginning of the season, which counted toward this 9 total.
Right off the bat, we see that 70% of the time, the “right” call was to just utilize Ohtani for his bat.
Scoring Scenarios
I then wondered how much Ohtani would have scored if you played him optimally each and every week. If you had the magic touch for this, he would have scored 908.6 points, which would have outperformed his pure-hitting score by 100.6 points. This is the Optimal row in the graphic below
Now, if you somehow chose wrong each week, you would have only realized 301.2 points.
If you picked right on average, then you’d have (hypothetically) realized 604.9 points. This one has tons of potential permutations depending on start-sit sequencing, so I instead took a straight average. The true average is likely somewhere near this figure.
Important note, both the worst-case and average scenarios underperformed the “All-Hit” strategy by multiple hundreds of points, which is a worrisome figure for managers who plan to regularly shift Ohtani between pitcher and hitter positions. These managers will need to overperform the expected average to have a prayer at getting back to the All Hit threshold.
Why does this matter?
With the above figures in mind, I then performed a comparison of the different Ohtani outcomes you might have incurred against the player valuation model I referenced in my Sorare Pre-Drop Watchlist.
In the All-Hit strategy, Ohtani would have just edged-out Austin Riley for the 7th best player in YTD scoring. That’s fantastic, and one heck of a baseline score. This is part of why I am so committed to the All Hit strategy.
In the Optimal outcome, he would have been 3rd best. This would be an exceptional score, but also highly unlikely to achieve since managers would need to be perfect on their start-sit decisions each and every week.
These are exceptional outcomes and certainly will help to justify what I expect to be a top-tier price for Ohtani come launch day. But what if you tried to play the matchups or simply got a bit unlucky?
In the Average outcome, he falls to 53rd in total points.
In the Just Pitch outcome, he falls to 197th. This is good for the 25th best among Starting Pitcher-eligible players.
In the Worst case scenario, he falls to 310th overall.
The upside is undeniable, but there is a definite downside risk in playing the weekly game-picking roulette with Ohtani.
When I find myself with Ohtani shares of my own, I will be starting him almost exclusively as a hitter. On an individual basis, this decision will be contingent upon a given manager’s risk tolerance and overall card portfolio.
What doesn’t this cover?
Part of the beauty of owning Ohtani cards is the flexibility. Playing him at pitcher may not always be an optimal strategy when compared to his hitting stats, but it could be a positive strategy if your roster is loaded with top-tier hitters, but lacks pitching.
There are always caveats to statistics, and the ability to start Ohtani in such a unique combo of position slots will give managers some definite flexibility when it comes to roster construction.
The Close
I’ve said it before, but it is worth repeating, Ohtani is one of the best players in the game. He is hugely impactful for the game of baseball, and it is amazing to watch him do what he does.
However, for the game of Sorare, it seems that the vast majority of his value comes from his bat. He isn’t the clear-cut #1 player in Sorare MLB that he is in real-life.
When cards drop this week, if his prices are far and away setting the top of the market, players interested in his point-scoring capability should perhaps consider other options. That said, I can’t fault anyone for wanting to load up on collectibles associated with Ohtani based on the long-term value he brings to the game itself.
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