The Fantasy Road is Dangerous: Take This
Wisdom of the Crowd, or Mob Mentality?
The MLB season is winding down, with the NFL heating up and the NBA on the horizon, so I’ve found myself taking a mental step back in recent weeks.
Namely, I wanted to crystalize my “why.”
The Fantasy Sports industry, Crypto industry, and even the broader Sports industry at large are filled with really smart people. People devoted to their respective crafts and to delivering massive value on a daily basis.
So where do I fit?
Well, from my perch here between Fantasy Sports and Crypto I see gaps. Mainstream adoption is still a ways off for Fantasy Sports operating on the Blockchain. Yet there is massive capital flowing into the space and plenty of people looking to strike it rich.
Sorare is an excellent example of a company I feel is doing most things the right way, but by no means the only example. It just happens to be one of the first games where I personally felt good about the game itself and the economics behind it. They have built a solid platform and an eager player base, but for every Sorare there are projects that feel far more unsustainable or even untrustworthy. It is just the nature of the best, and something I feel uniquely suited to help with as more traditional fantasy players begin to migrate to platforms like Sorare in search of fame and fortune.
On the complete flip side, there are many more crypto-native users for whom Fantasy content is a foreign concept. Even Sorare users coming from the Football (Soccer) world experienced at least a bit of friction adapting to the sport of baseball. Basketball will likely be much the same. Fantasy content is an area well traveled for me, both in consumption and in separating the signal from the noise. And make no mistake, when it comes to fantasy baseball and basketball, the content already on the market is pretty darn solid. So solid and so plentiful that new users could easily get overwhelmed, lost, or otherwise bamboozled.
This is another area where I can be of assistance.
Taken separately, neither angle is new or exciting. When they are combined, that’s when the magic happens.
I can pull from the best and most easily digestable content on the market while putting it into a format equally useful for the crypto-newbie as the fantasy-newbie.
Let’s take an example.
Players do amazing things and get hot at seemingly random parts of the season, driving decisions around short-term performance versus long-term projections. The effect of these hot streaks appears to be magnified on the Sorare platform, where real money (ETH) is at stake. Top players undergo giant price swings because they were simply slumping, then got hot, or were hot and got hurt. Either way, the market vastly overreacts to the now in a way I hardly thought possible.
In times of magnificent performances, you will likely see me preaching caution. And in times of slumps or extended cold streaks, you will find me more aggressive. This is because in fantasy, short-term thinking a trap. In fact, it is one of the easiest traps to fall victim to, and one of the clearest ways to improve your game overnight.
While I am certainly not providing you with investment advice, the old investment adage holds as true here as anywhere I have seen:
“Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.”
-Warren Buffet
I’ll help you go against the grain, and take advantage of opportunities when everyone around you is being herded in the other direction.
This path won’t be for the faint of heart, and that is why I feel my presence is needed here in the space. This is because nobody is going to be right 100 percent of the time, that just wouldn’t be fun. To make matters worse, when everyone else is right they will be loud about it. You will wonder if you missed out. You might even wan’t to buy into a player here or there because how could you pass that up? We will fight those emotions and focus on making stronger bets than buying high on the flavor of the month.
We are playing a game where you need to either be kinda right a lot, very right sporadically or a bit of both. Sometimes people will conflate “very right sporadically” with “lucky,” which is partly true, but you will find in time that you put yourself in the best position to get “lucky.” By using data-driven and predictive approaches, I can help you be both kinda right, very right, and yes, sometimes even lucky, more often. This translates to stronger-performing teams for less capital, more rewards, and more fun. Because this is supposed to be fun dang-it!
In a market that overreacts to the highs and lows, I can help you find the zen middle-ground.
Fantasy Sports are a game of making educated guesses because none of us can predict the future. But my “why” such that it is, is that I can better prepare you for what’s to come, not what’s already happened, and I can do it in a way that you won’t need a master’s in statistics or computer science to understand.
Where do I fit is perhaps no longer the proper question, but rather would you like to go against the crowd with me?
My parting thought for this ramble: when we are in the depths of a roster slump - and make no mistake, it will happen - take heart in the wise words of Roy Kent from the amazing show Ted Lasso.
Play us out Roy:
Thank you all for agreeing to take this ride with me. Whenever you joined and whenever you are reading this. You all allow me to do this niche thing I love, and I can’t tell you how much that means to me.
If you were sent this post from a friend:
a) you have a great friend and,
b) please subscribe below and consider passing it along to someone else who is on the same journey we are. We can all win together!